Worthbound Risk / Return Framework

Worthbound Risk / Return Framework

Status

Canonical System File
Version: 0.1
Authority Level: System
Depends On:

• 05-Economy/01-Economic-Model.md
• 05-Economy/02-Income-Model.md
• 05-Economy/03-Expense-Model.md
• 05-Economy/04-Opportunity-Access-Model.md
• 03-Archetypes/03-Archetype-Balance-Framework.md
• 09-Production/01-MVP-Scope.md

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1. Purpose

This file defines how risk and return should relate to each other in Worthbound.

The risk / return framework exists to answer:

• what makes an opportunity risky
• what makes an opportunity attractive
• how much upside should justify how much danger
• how protection changes acceptable risk
• how different archetypes interact with risk differently

For the mobile-first MVP, this framework must remain:

• clear
• intuitive
• easy to communicate
• simple enough to tune
• strong enough to make choices meaningful

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2. Core Risk / Return Law

Worthbound must teach this truth:

High upside is only valuable when the player can survive the downside.

This means the best opportunity is not always:

• the largest return
• the fastest growth
• the highest income increase

The best opportunity is often the one whose risk fits:

• the player’s reserves
• the player’s protection
• the player’s archetype
• the player’s timing
• the player’s current burden

This keeps the game strategic rather than greedy.

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3. What Counts as Risk

Risk in Worthbound is any condition that can turn a promising move into a setback, slowdown, or collapse.

In MVP, risk should mostly come from:

• cash commitment risk
• event vulnerability
• income interruption sensitivity
• expense increase
• debt amplification
• timing failure
• overconcentration
• underprotection

These forms of risk are enough for a strong first release.

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4. What Counts as Return

Return in Worthbound is any positive structural gain created by a decision.

Return may include:

• higher passive income
• higher active income
• lower expense burden
• better resilience
• better opportunity access
• stronger future flexibility
• reduced collapse risk

This is important: return is not only about money-in. Return can also be:

• stability
• flexibility
• protection
• preserved momentum

That makes the framework richer and more true to the game.

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5. The Five Risk Factors

Use these five factors to evaluate opportunity risk in MVP.

5.1 Entry Cost Risk

How much immediate cash commitment the opportunity requires.

5.2 Downside Severity

How painful failure or underperformance would be.

5.3 Timing Sensitivity

How much the opportunity depends on being taken at the right moment.

5.4 Protection Dependence

How much safer the opportunity becomes if the player has coverage.

5.5 Recovery Difficulty

How hard it is to recover if the opportunity goes badly.

These five factors are enough for compact tuning.

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6. The Five Return Factors

Use these five factors to evaluate opportunity return in MVP.

6.1 Income Gain

How much recurring income the opportunity can create.

6.2 Expense Efficiency

How much the opportunity can reduce or control future burden.

6.3 Stability Gain

How much the opportunity improves resilience or predictability.

6.4 Scaling Potential

How much the opportunity can accelerate later growth.

6.5 Escape Contribution

How directly the opportunity helps close the passive-income gap.

This helps keep return design broader than “big payout.”

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7. Risk Bands for MVP

To keep the system simple, all major opportunities should broadly fit one of three risk bands.

7.1 Low Risk

• modest downside
• easier recovery
• lower reward ceiling
• more suitable for stable compounding

7.2 Medium Risk

• balanced upside and downside
• meaningful but survivable pressure
• broadly useful when timed well

7.3 High Risk

• stronger upside
• sharper downside
• heavier dependence on timing, reserves, and protection
• more archetype-sensitive

These bands can be shown to the player directly or kept partially abstracted depending on UX direction.

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8. Return Bands for MVP

Likewise, opportunities should broadly fit one of three return bands.

8.1 Modest Return

• small but reliable contribution
• good for consistency and compounding

8.2 Strong Return

• meaningful contribution to growth
• good for medium-term progression

8.3 High Return

• major potential contribution
• may accelerate escape significantly if timed well

This keeps opportunity comparison clearer.

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9. Archetype Relationship to Risk

Each archetype should feel different around risk.

Skilled Worker

Should prefer:

• practical opportunities
• understandable downside
• manageable entry cost
• protection-backed moves

Professional

Should prefer:

• stable opportunities
• medium-risk disciplined growth
• compounding plays
• lower-chaos scaling

Corporate Climber

Should be able to access:

• larger opportunities
• premium upside
• higher-capital plays
• but with real danger from overhead and leakage

Entrepreneur

Should be most comfortable with:

• dynamic opportunities
• volatile upside
• timing-sensitive plays
• but also the most punished by unmanaged downside

Risk fit is part of archetype identity.

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10. Protection as Risk Modifier

Protection should actively modify risk.

Examples:

• Income Protection reduces downside severity for interruption-linked opportunities
• Health Protection reduces collapse risk in labor-sensitive paths
• Asset Protection lowers recovery difficulty for ownership plays

This means protection can sometimes increase the set of opportunities that are reasonable.

This is a key law: protection does not only reduce pain; it expands viable strategy space

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11. Liquidity as Risk Modifier

Liquidity must also modify risk.

The same opportunity should feel:

• safer with strong reserves
• riskier with weak reserves

This matters because cash is not idle in Worthbound. Cash is:

• buffer
• timing tool
• anti-panic resource
• strategic permission

A player with no buffer should not experience high-risk opportunities the same way as a buffered player.

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12. Debt as Risk Amplifier

Debt should amplify risk.

Why:

• it raises pressure
• it reduces flexibility
• it punishes poor timing
• it makes recovery harder
• it magnifies downside severity

This means a medium-risk move may become a high-risk move for a player already carrying structural burden.

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13. The Trap Rule

Some opportunities should be tempting but wrong for the current moment.

This is necessary because Worthbound teaches through consequence.

A trap is not an unfair hidden trick. A trap is:

• an attractive move
• taken at the wrong time
• by the wrong structure
• without the right preparation

This allows the game to teach:

• greed
• impatience
• poor fit
• underprotection
• weak liquidity

These are exactly the right lessons.

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14. The Smart Risk Rule

Worthbound should reward intelligent risk, not blanket caution.

A player should sometimes be right to:

• take a bigger opportunity
• commit more cash
• move before feeling fully comfortable
• accelerate growth

But only when:

• reserves are sufficient
• protection is reasonable
• timing is favorable
• archetype fit is strong
• downside is survivable

This keeps the game bold, not timid.

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15. Recommended Opportunity Evaluation Lens

Every meaningful opportunity in MVP should be internally evaluated through this lens:

• What is the upside?
• What is the downside?
• What does it cost now?
• How fast does it help?
• How badly does it hurt if it goes wrong?
• Who is this best for?
• What makes it safer?
• What makes it more dangerous?

This lens is useful for both canon design and UG implementation prompting.

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16. Failure Patterns Related to Risk

The risk / return framework should punish:

• taking upside with no reserve
• ignoring protection
• confusing large return with good timing
• taking archetype-misaligned opportunities
• underestimating downside severity
• stacking too much exposure too quickly

These should feel like honest consequences of bad judgment.

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17. Success Patterns Related to Risk

The risk / return framework should reward:

• preparing before committing
• matching risk to archetype strength
• using protection to widen viable options
• preserving recoverability
• selecting opportunities whose upside actually helps close the freedom gap

This is how the player should feel smart.

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18. MVP Tuning Priorities

When tuning risk / return, use this order:

First

Make the downside of risky opportunities real.

Second

Make safe opportunities genuinely useful, not fake choices.

Third

Make protection and liquidity visibly alter what counts as safe.

Fourth

Make archetype fit matter.

Fifth

Make risk levels understandable on mobile.

This keeps the system honest and readable.

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19. Working Summary

The Worthbound risk / return framework is built around one principle:

• upside matters
• downside matters just as much
• protection changes what is viable
• liquidity changes what is survivable
• the best move is the move your current life structure can actually carry

That is how risk and return should work in the mobile-first MVP.